Unseasonably
dry weather in Kansas, Oklahoma,
and Texas
have farmers concerned about next summer’s yields. Over-winter wheat, sown in
October and November is still awaiting rain before going dormant for the
winter. Common practice is to sow grain and allow autumn rains to germinate the
seed early in hope of establishing a healthy stand before the winter freeze.
However, there are alarming reports that scant November precipitation has seed
lying in the ground un-germinated. With global grain reserves at their lowest
in half a century poor germination is sure to disappoint--likely spelling lower
yields.

A
lower yield from the U.S.
makes many nervous as current demand is outpacing yield and domestic and
international grain reserves continue to decline. When tracking the recent
spike in prices of major agricultural commodities you will find that global
demand for wheat is increasing due to the simple fact that a majority of
nations do not have surplus and must import. Drought, disasters, lack of
domestic production, and the falling value of the U.S. dollar are driving the
demand to import surplus U.S.
grain.

For
instance, Bangladesh
is intent on purchasing 500,000 tons of grain after the recent cyclone
destroyed their stockpiles and crops. Japan,
Taiwan, South Korea, India,
and Pakistan
are also looking to purchase grain this month-and it is no surprise why. These
nations have dense populations that cannot grow enough food within their own
land-base to support the nutritive and energetic demands of their citizens. These
issues are compounded by rising energy prices and shipping cost. Crude oil continues
to flirt with $100 a barrel, and there is little flexibility for importing nations
to avert paying higher prices for ocean freight.

As
this discussion revolves around global food and energy security it appears that
politicians appear focused on their own careers. The tensions between demand
and supply are increasingly influenced by climate uncertainty, advancing
population, and global petroleum dependence.

We
have an opportunity to take these issues seriously by making connections
locally to provide for ourselves in the places we live. This effort is called
Relocalization. Visit the Relocalization
Network to link with groups in your area working to address these issues
and build strong, self-reliant communities.

Also,
check Bloomberg’s report: Wheat
Rises as Drought Hurts Crops in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma